War & Peace
War & Peace is a podcast series from the International Crisis Group. Hosts Olga Oliker and Elissa Jobson interview experts about Europe and its neighbourhood, from Russia to Turkey and beyond. Their guests shed new light on everything that helps or hinders prospects for peace. The podcast is a member of the EuroPod production network.
Afleveringen
NATO in Türkiye/Türkiye in NATO
In this episode of War & Peace, Olga is joined by Galip Dalay, senior research fellow at Chatham House, to discuss Türkiye’s evolving relations with NATO and with the EU ahead of the NATO summit in Ankara in July. They examine what Ankara hopes to get from the summit and prospects for greater recognition of Türkiye’s role in European security. They discuss Türkiye’s expanding defence industry,
Hungary – and Europe – After Orbán
In this episode of War & Peace, Olga is joined by Zsuzsanna Végh, Program Officer with the German Marshall Fund, to discuss the aftermath of Hungary’s elections, which saw Péter Magyar’s Tisza party decisively defeat Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz after more than 16 years in power. They talk about the factors behind Tisza’s victory and what might come next for Orbán and Fidesz. They discuss Magyar’s fo
EU and NATO Members Grapple with War in Iran
In this episode of War & Peace, Olga is joined by Crisis Group’s head of EU affairs, Lisa Musiol, to take stock of how the EU and European capitals have responded to the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran. They discuss how coordinated this response has been, the balancing act of trying to preserve the transatlantic relationship while avoiding being drawn directly into the conflict, and what lessons ca
Cold Hard Truths: Arctic Security in a Changing World
In this episode of War & Peace, Olga is joined by Gabriella Gricius, Senior Fellow at the Arctic Institute and Postdoctoral Fellow at the University of Konstanz, to speak about Arctic security and how great power competition is playing out in the High North. They examine U.S. President Donald Trump’s push to acquire Greenland, whether there is any logic behind the idea that the U.S. needs to o
Bonus Episode: A Transport Route to Peace in the South Caucasus?
Today, we're bringing you a bonus episode from Crisis Group's global podcast, Hold Your Fire!In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood speaks with Joshua Kucera, Crisis Group’s senior South Caucasus analyst, about progress in Armenia-Azerbaijan peace talks, U.S. involvement and shifting regional politics. They discuss U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance’s recent visit to Yerevan and Baku, why
Can Europe Solve Its U.S. Dilemma?
In this episode of War & Peace, Olga and Alissa are joined by Nathalie Tocci, director of the Istituto Affari Internazionali in Rome, to discuss how European capitals are reacting to recent U.S. actions in Venezuela and the Trump administration’s aggressive rhetoric over Greenland, and how EU and NATO member states can navigate an increasingly strained transatlantic relationship. They explore
Karabakh Refugees in Armenia
In this episode of War & Peace, Olga Oliker and Alissa de Carbonnel are joined by Joshua Kucera, Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst for the South Caucasus, to discuss the increasingly difficult situation facing people displaced from Nagorno-Karabakh in Armenia after Azerbaijan regained control of the territory in a rapid 2023 offensive. They unpack the refugees’ mounting challenges–from insecure ho
How Ukraine’s Women Are Meeting the Challenges of War
In this episode of War & Peace, Elissa and guest host Alissa de Carbonnel are joined by Sabine Freizer Gunes, UN Women representative for Ukraine, about how the war in Ukraine has shaped and amplified gender inequalities in Ukraine and how women and women’s organisations are responding. They discuss the mood in Ukraine as it enters its fourth winter of full-scale war and the toll the conflict
A Bigger Table? The Case for More Global Diplomacy over Ukraine
In this episode of War & Peace, Olga and guest host Alissa de Carbonnel are joined by Bob Deen, Head of the Security Unit at the Clingendael Institute, to assess the state of diplomacy aimed at ending the war in Ukraine. They discuss why peace efforts by the U.S. and others have struggled to gain traction, and what diplomacy can realistically achieve in the near term. They also look at Kyiv’s
Elliptical Orbit? Belarusian Foreign Policy in Fraught Times
In this episode of War & Peace, Olga and Elissa speak with Valery Kavaleuski, former Belarusian diplomat and Executive Director of the Euro-Atlantic Affairs Agency, about Minsk’s evolving foreign policy and how it is constrained by enduring Russian influence. They discuss the joint Russian-Belarusian military exercise Zapad 2025, which took place just after 19 Russian drones crossed into Polan
Down, But Not Out? Russia’s Shifting Role in a Turbulent Middle East
In this episode of War & Peace, Olga Oliker speaks with Hanna Notte, Director for Eurasia at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies and a non-resident Senior Associate at CSIS, about Russia’s changing role in the Middle East. They discuss how Moscow is responding to the fall of Assad in Syria and the twelve-day war between Israel (and the U.S.) and Iran. They explore how Russia’s
More Europe, Less U.S.? What to Expect from the NATO Summit
In this episode of War & Peace, Olga and Elissa speak with Dr. Pia Fuhrhop, head of the International Security Research Division at SWP, about the upcoming NATO summit, transatlantic relations, and how European NATO allies are working to strengthen their own defence. They discuss expectations for the summit, the potential role of Ukraine, and the alliance’s push to raise defence spending targe
Ukraine: The Battlefield and the Negotiating Table
In this episode of War & Peace, Olga and Elissa speak with Crisis Group’s senior Ukraine analyst, Lucian Kim, about how the war in Ukraine is evolving and what is happening with diplomatic efforts to end it. They discuss recent developments along Ukraine’s front lines, how Kyiv is adapting on the battlefield and the mood among Ukrainians. They assess the recent Istanbul talks between Russian a
The Authoritarian Playbook Explained
In this episode of War & Peace, Olga and Elissa talk with political scientist Ekaterina Schulmann to unpack how aspiring authoritarian leaders transform democracies into autocratic governments and whether democratic erosion in Western democracies is, in fact, a trend. They discuss how such leaders concentrate power and systematically weaken democratic institutions. They also explore the role o
Latin America’s Evolving Drug Trade. Why It Matters for Europe
In this episode of War & Peace, Olga and Elissa talk with Crisis Group’s Latin America program director Renata Segura and senior Colombia analyst Elizabeth Dickinson. They unpack the evolving landscape of narcotics trafficking in Latin America and how the violent crime it fuels is affecting communities across the continent. They explore why, more than 50 years after the U.S. declared a “war on
Bonus Episode: Trump, France and European Security
Today, we're bringing you a bonus episode from Crisis Group's global podcast, Hold Your Fire!In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood is joined by Gérard Araud, Crisis Group Trustee and former French ambassador to the U.S., the UN and Israel. They take stock of U.S. President Donald Trump’s foreign policy so far, his administration’s seemingly competing visions for European security and
After Assad – Implications for Türkiye in Syria and Beyond
In this episode of War & Peace, Olga and Elissa speak with Berkay Mandıracı, Crisis Group’s senior Türkiye analyst, about Ankara’s evolving role in Syria following the Assad regime’s collapse and about the apparent progress of efforts to resolve the conflict between Türkiye and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). They examine Türkiye’s relations with Hei’at Tahrir al-Sham, the new rulers in Sy
What 2025 Could Mean for the War in Ukraine and the Ukrainian and Russian Armed Forces
In this episode of War & Peace, Olga and Elissa are joined by Michael Kofman, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment specialising in Ukrainian and Russian military affairs. They reflect on the developments along Ukraine’s frontlines in 2024, the challenges Ukraine’s and Russia’s armed forces have faced, including high equipment losses as well as shortages of personnel and ammunition, and how
Lucian Kim on Russia, Ukraine and His New Book “Putin’s Revenge”
In this episode of War & Peace, Olga Oliker speaks with Lucian Kim, Crisis Group’s Senior Ukraine analyst, about his new book “Putin’s Revenge: Why Russia Invaded Ukraine”. They reflect on Lucian’s decades-long career as a journalist covering pivotal political events in Russia and Ukraine, from Ukraine’s 2004 Orange Revolution and the 2014 Euromaidan protests to Russia’s full-scale invasion of
A New European Commission Faces a Fast-changing World
In this episode of War & Peace, Olga and Elissa are joined by Lisa Musiol, head of EU affairs to discuss the challenges facing the new European Commission. They ask what the appointment of more right-leaning commissioners might mean for its policy direction and discuss the priorities of the new EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs, Kaja Kallas, particularly regarding the war in Ukraine a
What Next for Georgia and Its Breakaway Regions after Contested Elections?
In this episode of War & Peace, Olga and Elissa are joined by Tbilisi-based journalist Joshua Kucera to discuss Georgia’s contested parliamentary elections and the prospects for the country and its breakaway regions Abkhazia and South Ossetia. They look at what explains the electoral success of the ruling Georgian Dream party, what’s behind allegations of vote rigging and why the opposition ha
U.S. Elections: Trump, Harris and Transatlantic Relations
In this episode of War & Peace, Olga and Elissa speak with Jeremy Shapiro, U.S. Program Director at the European Council on Foreign Relations, about what the possible outcomes of the U.S. presidential election could mean for the future of transatlantic relations and European security. They weigh Donald Trump’s and Kamala Harris’ competing views about NATO and the value of multilateral alliance
A Still-fraught Path to Peace for Armenia and Azerbaijan
In the first episode of a new season of War & Peace, Olga and Elissa talk with Konul De Moor, Crisis Group’s consulting South Caucasus Analyst, about the difficult path toward peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan after Baku gained full control of Karabakh following a lightning offensive in September last year. They discuss the obstacles Baku faces in integrating Karabakh, including managing th
Prisoners of the Past? Political Crises and Ethnic Tensions in the Western Balkans
In this episode of War & Peace, Olga speaks with Crisis Group’s consulting senior Balkans analyst Marko Prelec about the enduring political and ethnic tensions in the Western Balkans. They discuss the looming risk of Bosnia and Herzegovina breaking up amid secessionist threats by authorities in Republika Srpska and grievances among Bosnia’s ethnic groups with its political system and its inter
A Long War in Ukraine? Perspectives from Kyiv and Washington
In this episode of War & Peace, Olga and Elissa speak with Lucian Kim, senior Ukraine analyst at Crisis Group, about how perspectives on the war in Ukraine are evolving in Kyiv and Washington and how both capitals grapple with the prospect of a long war as the U.S. heads for elections. They speak about what has changed in Ukraine since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion and how much
Could Far-Right Electoral Gains Upend EU Foreign Policy?
In this episode of War & Peace, Olga and Elissa speak with Crisis Group’s senior EU analyst Marta Mucznik and Senior Policy Fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations Susi Dennison, about the upcoming European Union parliamentary elections. With predictions of right-wing gains high, they ask what such an electoral outcome could mean for foreign policy. They also look at the factors dr
Moldova’s Restive Separatists, Russia Worries, and EU Aspirations
In this episode of War & Peace, Olga and Elissa speak with Crisis Group’s Oleg Ignatov, Senior Russia Analyst, and Marta Mucznik, Senior EU Analyst, about Moldova’s increasingly fraught relations with its breakaway region of Transnistria and Gagauz autonomous region, the recent appeals the two issued to Moscow for protection and implications for Chisinau’s EU membership goals. They discuss the
Can Nuclear Arms Control Survive a Changing World Order?
In this episode of War & Peace, Olga and Elissa talk to Joe Cirincione, author and a leading expert on arms control and national security, about the demise of arms control and the threat of nuclear war in a rapidly changing world order. They discuss the nuclear escalation risks of the war in Ukraine and the role deterrence has played in that war. They assess how U.S. nuclear policy has evolved
Two Years Into Full-Scale War, What Ukraine Needs and What its Backers Can Give
In this episode of War & Peace, Olga and Elissa are joined by Alissa de Carbonnel, Crisis Group’s Deputy Europe and Central Asia Director, and Simon Schlegel, Senior Ukraine Analyst, to talk about the latest developments along Ukraine’s front lines and the uncertainties emerging around support from Kyiv’s Western backers. They talk about the Russian takeover of Avdiivka on 17 February, what it
Maritime Security in the Red Sea: What Role for the EU?
In this episode of War & Peace, Olga and Elissa are joined by Camille Lons, visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, to talk about how Europe is responding to rising tensions in the Red Sea. They discuss what’s behind the recent string of attacks on commercial shipping by Houthi rebels in Yemen and how disruptions to supply chains in these strategic waters might affect pri
Is Moscow the Big Winner from War in the Middle East?
In this episode of War & Peace, Olga and Elissa are joined by Hanna Notte, Director for Eurasia at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, to assess Russia’s stance on the war in Gaza, how Russia is looking to benefit from the war and its approach to the Middle East. They look at how Moscow is trying to leverage the conflict to strengthen diplomatic and military ties with Gulf Ar
Europe’s Struggle to Respond to the Gaza War
In this episode of War & Peace, Olga and Elissa talk with Julien Barnes-Dacey, Middle East and North Africa Program Director at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), to assess Europe’s response to the Gaza war. They unpack different EU Member States’ positions on the war and why it has been difficult for European leaders to find common ground on policies toward Israel-Palestine. Th
Time to Talk? Assessing the Plausibility of Negotiations in the Russo-Ukrainian War
In this episode of War & Peace, Olga talks with Samuel Charap, Senior Political Scientist at the RAND Corporation, about whether the current moment makes negotiations to end the war in Ukraine more or less advantageous for all concerned. They discuss Russian narratives about negotiations, various parties' goals and whether or not Moscow has the upper hand in the wake of Ukraine’s counteroffens
Why Women Fight: Gender Dynamics in Insurgencies and Armies
Throughout history, women have been involved in conflict: as soldiers, as insurgents and as civilians. Yet, the ways in which men and women are treated on and off the battlefield and the contributions they make can vary widely, shaped in large part by deeply ingrained societal views about gender.In this episode of War & Peace, Olga Oliker and Elissa Jobson are joined by Jessica Trisko Darden,
The Days After: Humanitarian Crisis and Prospects for Peace in Karabakh and the Region
In the first episode of a new season of War & Peace, Olga Oliker is joined by Crisis Group’s South Caucasus experts, Olesya Vartanyan and Zaur Shiriyev, to talk about the implications of Azerbaijan regaining control of Nagorno-Karabakh in a one-day military operation on 19 September. The immediate consequences were the end of the enclave’s three decades of de facto self-rule and a mass exodus
NATO’s Vilnius Summit and Baltic Security
On 12 July, NATO concluded its two-day summit in the Lithuanian capital, Vilnius. At the backdrop of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the decision to hold the meeting in one of NATO’s newer members and a country claimed by the Soviet Union for decades was seen as a sign of commitment to the alliance's eastern flank. The war in Ukraine was unsurprisingly the focal point of the summit, with NATO member
Ukraine’s Male Travel Ban and the Protection of Civilians in Wartime
War, by definition, takes terrible tolls on civilian populations. Just what risks a given person faces depends on many factors, including gender, class and geography. While international law has evolved to protect both civilians and combatants at war, it is not always followed, to say the least, and governments often fail to adequately protect even their own civilian population. In Ukraine, the go
The War in Ukraine: Rallying Point for the Left or New Neocon Adventure?
Western support for Ukraine’s war against Russia has faced continued scrutiny. Critics have compared the conflict to past American wars of choice, such as the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq, which were informed by neoconservative foreign policy, aiming to promote peace and democracy through military means. Ukraine and its backers present a contrasting narrative, emphasising both defence against
Bonus Episode: Is This the End? Wagner in Russia, Ukraine and Africa
Today we're bringing you a bonus episode on the attempted insurrection by Wagner forces in Russia from Crisis Group's global podcast Hold Your Fire!Over the weekend, Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Russian private security company known as the Wagner Group, spearheaded an insurrection in Russia. In response to Kremlin moves to bring Wagner under the Russian army’s command and, according to him,
Escalation in Northern Kosovo: Causes, Dangers and Prospects
On 29 May, a group of ethnic Serb protesters clashed with troops of the NATO peacekeeping force KFOR in the town of Zvečan in northern Kosovo. Demonstrators were angry at the Kosovo government’s decision to instal ethnic Albanian mayors, elected in a poll boycotted by the region’s majority ethnic Serb population, in the country’s northern municipalities. The mayors’ installation and ensuing clashe
What to Expect from Five More Years of President Erdoğan in Türkiye
This week on War & Peace, Olga Oliker speaks with Crisis Group’s Türkiye Director Nigar Göksel about the Turkish elections and how President Erdoğan’s new term might shape the country’s domestic and foreign policy. Last Sunday, Türkiye’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan secured another five years in office after winning the presidential runoff election against the opposition candidate, Kema
Increasingly At Odds: What’s Shaping the EU-China Relationship?
The EU’s relations with China have long been complex. With China’s influence expanding globally and the U.S. increasingly viewing Beijing as its primary competitor, the EU and its member states have choices to make, choices further complicated by China’s close ties to Russia and the role it might yet play in the Kremlin’s war against Ukraine. Beijing, for its part, also faces choices as it continu
Protests and Far-Right Politics in Israel and Europe
Israel’s new governing far-right coalition under Benjamin Netanyah has proposed judicial reform that would weaken the country’s judiciary. In response, Israelis have taken to the streets in protests, activism that has now gone on for months. The protests reflect not just the reforms, but frustration with this government, which took office in December 2022 and is often described as the most right-w
Protests in Georgia and Tbilisi’s Complicated Relationships with Russia and the West
In early March, Georgians took to the street in Tbilisi to protest a bill that would have classified organisations and media groups receiving more than 20 per cent of their funding from abroad as foreign agents. Although the ruling Georgian Dream party eventually dropped the bill, many Georgians remain frustrated at the government for what they see as a deliberate effort to turn the country’s back
Bert Koenders on the War in Ukraine and the Future of Europe
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has marked a watershed for Europe. The European Union (EU) and its member states acted quickly to implement sanctions against Russia, bolster Ukrainian defences and improve their own energy security. Now, over a year later, with no end in sight to the fighting, EU members and their allies and partners are faced with new challenges as they strive to ensure th
Tribunal on the Crime of Aggression: Faint Prospect or Realistic Probability?
This episode of War & Peace draws on a live Twitter Spaces discussion between Olga Oliker, Elissa Jobson, Crisis Group’s UN Director Richard Gowan and its Senior Adviser for the U.S. Brian Finucane regarding the prospects for a crime of aggression tribunal to hold Russian leadership accountable for the invasion of Ukraine. Their conversation explains what crimes of aggression mean from the sta
Ukraine’s Jews, Israel and the War
Accusations of anti-semitism and nazism have been a leitmotif of the Russian-Ukrainian war from its start. Russian propaganda has consistently accused Ukraine’s government of ultra-nationalist and fascist tendencies since the conflict began in 2014. Russian President Vladimir Putin drew on years of this narrative in February 2022 when he paired Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine with promises
Kazakhstan One Year After "Bloody January"
2022 was a turbulent year for Kazakhstan. In early January, anti-government protests erupted across the country. The resulting clashes between police and demonstrators led to thousands of arrests and left more than 200 people dead. In response, President Kassym-Jomart Tokaev promised political reforms. Tokaev also quickly began distancing himself (in public, at least) from his predecessor Nursulta
Catherine Ashton on Diplomacy, Ukraine, and Her New Book
From 2009 to 2014, Catherine Ashton served as the European Union’s (EU) first high representative for foreign affairs and security policy. In that role, she was the EU’s senior negotiator for some of the most important international agreements of the early 21st century, including the 2013 Serbia-Kosovo settlement and the lead-up to the Iran nuclear deal. In her forthcoming book And Then What
Understanding the Latest Escalation in Türkiye’s PKK Conflict
On 13 November, a bomb detonated in Istanbul’s busy Istiklal Avenue, killing six and wounding 81 people. Ankara blamed the attack on the PKK, a Kurdish militant insurgency, which has been in a decades-long battle with the Turkish military. The PKK denied involvement in the attack. Subsequently, Türkiye launched a series of airstrikes in northern Syria and Iraq on the PKK and affiliated groups and
Making Sense of Russia’s Changing Role in Africa
For more than a decade, Russia has made a concerted effort to strengthen its influence on the African continent. It has had some success. In countries like the Central African Republic and Mali, Russia has become the preferred partner for the provision of security services through private military companies like Wagner. Meanwhile, France and other Western countries have struggled to maintain their
A Closer Look at Ukraine’s Donbas after Russia’s Occupation
If war reached most of Ukraine in February of 2022, when Russia launched its full-scale invasion, the country’s eastern Donbas region has been torn apart by war since Russia, having occupied Crimea, undertook operations there in 2014. Since February, Russian forces have occupied even more territory in the region, some of which Ukrainian troops have now liberated. But having done so, Kyiv must grap
The Still-Perilous Path Toward Peace Between Armenia and Azerbaijan
It has been almost two years since a November 2020 ceasefire deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan ended a brutal six-week war. While the Moscow-brokered deal was meant to end large-scale combat operations, it hasn’t stopped regular flare-ups of armed violence between the two sides since, culminating in September with the deadliest clashes yet along their shared border. Although Armenia and Azerbaij
Bosnia and Herzegovina After the Elections
More than two weeks after the elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina on 2 October, the country’s political future remains uncertain. While reformist and moderate candidates have seen success in the run for the country’s presidency – a position that is shared between members of the Bosniak, Croat and Serb entities – many of Bosnia’s underlying political divisions persist. Causing further dispute was t
Taking Stock of Russia’s Military Performance in Ukraine
On 21 September, Vladimir Putin announced a partial mobilisation in Russia, marking a major escalation of the war in Ukraine. According to Russia’s Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu, 300,000 Russians could be added to the force, although how quickly is not clear and far more may need to be called up to reach those numbers. This comes after significant setbacks for the Russian military, especially in
6.3 Million IDPs and a Humanitarian Crisis: Ukraine’s “New Normal”
Even if the war in Ukraine ended tomorrow, the country’s humanitarian needs would be colossal. Around 6.3 million people are displaced internally, with many still living in communal shelters not suited to the coming winter. While fighting rages on mostly in Ukraine’s east and south east, the effects of war reverberate throughout the rest of the country, which has no choice but to adapt to a “new n
What it Means to Demine in Ukraine and Afghanistan
Landmines remain a tool of warfare around the world. Yet both during and after fighting, they wreak havoc not just on adversaries, but also on the civilian population. In mined areas, everyday activities such as farming crops or going to school are fraught with risk. In Ukraine, after eight years of conflict, landmines have long threatened civilians in the Donbas. Now, in the wake of Russia’s Febr
Climate, Conflict and the Implications of Russia’s War on Ukraine
When world leaders convened at COP26 in November last year, climate was at the forefront of the global agenda. But Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has instead triggered a new “gold rush” for fossil fuels amid skyrocketing commodity prices. In the shadow of the continuing war, leaders meeting at the G7 summit later this month must find ways to reduce reliance on Russian energy without
100 Days of War in Ukraine: Russia’s Offensive in the East
After failing to capture Kyiv, Russian forces have regrouped, with Moscow looking to solidify control of territory it holds in the south and east and to capture more land, including all of Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Artillery exchanges and positional fighting continue, even as local cities and towns suffer under bombardment and/or occupation.This week on War & Peace, Olga Oliker and Elissa J
The Ukraine War: A Watershed Moment for EU Foreign Policy?
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has been a watershed moment for EU foreign policy. Since then, the EU has mobilised €2 billion of military aid and levied some of the harshest sanctions ever imposed. At the same time, there is concern about how the effects of the Ukraine war will be felt in conflicts elsewhere, as geopolitical tensions threaten to derail fragile peace processes and undermin
Changing Dynamics in the Western Balkans
The Western Balkans, a region defined in part by not being in the European Union, also contains several countries that were devastated by war in the 1990s. Now it faces new troubles, driven in part by the legacies of the old. Bosnia and Herzegovina is confronted with calls for secession in the autonomous Serb-dominated region, Republika Srpska, as well as the ongoing electoral grievances of its Cr
Internal Displacement and Humanitarian Response in Ukraine
Russia’s war in Ukraine has created a huge displacement crisis, with nearly eight million people internally displaced and over five million fleeing abroad. As the fighting enters its third month, the war's immense humanitarian cost looks set to mount even higher – potentially leading even more to flee. This week on War & Peace, Olga Oliker and Elissa Jobson talk to Simon Schlegel, Crisis
Can the OSCE Survive the Ukraine War?
The future of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) is in doubt. Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine in clear violation of the OSCE’s commitments to territorial integrity, sovereignty and human rights, has put unprecedented strain on the world's largest regional security organisation, raising questions about its viability as a forum for engagement between Russia and t
The Ukraine War's Global Shockwaves
War continues to rage in Ukraine, over a month after Russia launched its large-scale invasion. Alongside its staggering humanitarian consequences, the war’s fallout has been felt widely around the globe – impacting everything from commodity prices to negotiations to finalise the Iran nuclear deal. Meanwhile, countries’ responses to the invasion have run the gamut from outrage to ambivalence to sym
Bonus Episode: The Ukraine War: A View From Africa
Today we're bringing you a bonus episode on the Russian war in Ukraine, from Crisis Group's podcast The Horn -- featuring War & Peace's new host, Elissa Jobson. Africa’s response to the Ukraine crisis has been far from united. Emerging rifts were on stark display during the historic UN General Assembly session in early March: only around half of African states supported the resolution’s denunc
Turkey and Russia’s Complicated Relationship
Russia and Turkey’s complex relationship sometimes baffles outside observers. In many respects, Turkey and Russia are fierce competitors: Moscow and Ankara back opposing camps in Libya, Syria and Nagorno-Karabakh, and Turkey is a member of NATO – the alliance Russia views as both adversary and threat. Nevertheless, this has not prevented collaboration between the two powers, who share profound eco
Bonus Episode: Russia's War in Ukraine
Today we're bringing you a bonus episode on the Russian war in Ukraine, from Crisis Group's global podcast Hold Your Fire! On Thursday 24 February, Russian President Vladimir Putin declared the launch of, in his words, a “special military operation” in Ukraine. Russian airstrikes on military and other infrastructure near Ukrainian cities were followed by massive troop advances from the north, east
Where Can Europe Best Act for Peace?
The year 2022 looks set to be a challenging year for Europe. The EU must reckon with growing risks of conflict close to home: from a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine to rising ethnic tensions in the Western Balkans, the EU must brace itself for new wars on its doorstep. Elsewhere, deadly fighting and humanitarian disasters continue to rage across the globe – from Afghanistan to Ethiopia to Ven
How Does the EU Help Prevent Conflicts?
The president of the European Commision, Ursula Von Der Leyen, has vowed to create a more “geopolitical commission”, ramping up Europe’s external involvement and staking out an increasingly prominent place on the world stage. Though it has at times struggled to forge a united policy, the EU should not be underestimated: as the world's third largest economy, the bloc has numerous tools at its dispo
What Just Happened in Kazakhstan?
In early January 2022, an unexpected wave of protests swept across Kazakhstan. Initially provoked by a doubling of the price of liquified petroleum gas (LPG), the protests rapidly grew more political as they spread throughout the country, encompassing a wide range of interests and demands. President Qasym Joomart Tokaev responded by shutting down the internet as his police detained over 12,000 peo
Could Citizens’ Assemblies Save Democracy?
A wave of democratic experimentation is defying conventional wisdom about electoral politics and good governance. Randomly selected citizens’ assemblies are becoming a popular tool for tackling complex policy issues. Ireland, France and Belgium, among others, have turned to citizens’ assemblies in recent years, often with considerable success. Proponents of this kind of random selection, also know
What Does Belarus's President Lukashenka Want?
In 2020, Belarusian dictator Aleksandr Lukashenka cracked down on protesters challenging the results of an election in which he had claimed resounding victory, and on the opposition in general. The European Union (EU) refused to recognise Lukashenka’s regime and imposed far-reaching sanctions. Relations between Belarus and its Western neighbours have since continued to spiral downward. In the summ
New Ways to Think About Nuclear Weapons
The threat posed by nuclear weapons is changing and policy-makers are struggling to keep up. As the Non-Proliferation Treaty review conference approaches, it is clear that the nuclear security field needs a new way of thinking. Nuclear-weapon states are expanding their arsenals and non-proliferation efforts have faltered: it is estimated that Tehran’s nuclear breakout time is now less than a month
Bonus Episode: Will Russia Invade Ukraine?
Today we're bringing you a bonus episode on the Russian troop buildup on the Ukrainian border, from Crisis Group's global podcast Hold Your Fire!.Olga Oliker, our War & Peace host and Crisis Group’s Europe and Central Asia director, and Oleg Ignatov, senior Russia analyst, join Hold Your Fire! host and Interim President Richard Atwood to discuss what led to the crisis. These include the move f
One Year On from the Ceasefire in Nagorno-Karabakh
On 10 November 2020, a Russian-brokered ceasefire put an end to a devastating war in Nagorno-Karabakh that killed some 7,000 people. But it did not bring peace. The year since has seen the situation grow increasingly uneasy. Both Armenia and Azerbaijan have fortified their military positions along the state border and continue to exchange deadly fire: mid-November saw the worst escalation of fight
German Foreign Policy After Merkel
After sixteen years at Europe’s helm, Angela Merkel is stepping down from power. The federal election in September also marked an end to the long-term hold her political party, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), had had over German politics. Merkel’s likely successor, Olaf Scholz, is now looking to forge a “traffic light coalition” between his Social Democratic Party (the SPD, whose trademark c
Europe’s Balancing Act in Western Sahara
Exactly a year ago, in November 2020, an old conflict on the south-western edge of Europe burst back into flames. After almost 30 years of ceasefire, the pro-independence Polisario Front and Morocco went back to battle stations in Western Sahara. European states have so far taken a timid stance in response, preferring not to involve themselves in another intractable conflict. Nonetheless, the new
The Migration Lessons of Afghanistan and Syria
In 2015, over a million people fleeing conflict arrived at Europe’s borders. The continent showed itself to be woefully underprepared, struggling to address the unfolding catastrophe at its doorstep: as decision makers wrangled over asylum quotas, a humanitarian crisis escalated to dramatic proportions. Six years later observers fear that “another 2015” could be imminent after Kabul’s fall to the
What's at Stake for Russia in a Taliban-led Afghanistan?
The Taliban’s dramatic toppling of the Afghan government prompted much soul-searching in the West. But for those closer to Kabul, anxieties about how the Taliban’s takeover will shape the region’s future are even more acute. Where some see risk, however, others see considerable opportunity. Russia’s position, for one, remains ambiguous: while Moscow seems unlikely to formally recognise the new gov
Big Data and Global Security
As rapidly developing data technology outpaces governance structures and their ability to adapt, the long-term impact of increasingly data-driven economies on security and society remains uncertain. What happens when personal data ends up in the hands of those in power?In the first episode of the third season of War & Peace, Olga Oliker and Hugh Pope are joined by Jim Balsillie, co-founder of
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